A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
