It was 60 days ago when the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again against United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
